Mean-reversionKilled

Bet against HYPE when the move looks overstretched

−11.2 bps

net per trade, every coin we tested lost money

bps = basis points = a hundredth of a percent (100 bps = 1%).

In plain English

Betting against “overstretched” moves looked great on a chart but lost money on every single coin we tested it on.

What it needed

positive net after the ~6 bps round-trip cost

→

What it got

−11.2 bps; every symbol variant negative

Why it's dead

The "overextension" fade looks compelling on a chart. In live data, every symbol variant returned negative net, and no filter or configuration cleared the round-trip cost floor.

The detail

n=92 trades across all symbol variants. Mean net per trade: −11.2 bps. Every single symbol produced a negative result, not one variant showed a positive expectation. A v2 parameter set only created negative skew.

Kill date: 2026-03-13
Sample: n=92 trades
Method: Pre-registered
Verdict: all symbols negative

What it would have done to your money

You put in$10,000

You run it for92 trades

You would have

$9,020

−$980

lost (10%)

You started with$10,000

This strategy left you$9,020

Instead of not trading$10,000

Locked to this strategy's real measured result of -0.112% per trade, compounded. You choose the amount and the time. We don't choose the return, the strategy already did.

Pre-registered before the data. Judged on a criterion locked in advance. Published whatever the result.

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