Copy-tradingKilled

"Follow the smart-money wallets" on Hyperliquid

+74.8 → −26.0 bps

the edge, before and after removing one lucky wallet

bps = basis points = a hundredth of a percent (100 bps = 1%).

In plain English

Copying the “smart-money” wallets only looked profitable because one lucky wallet carried the whole group, drop that single wallet and the strategy loses money.

What it needed

edge survives dropping any single wallet, > 14 bps

→

What it got

+74.8 → −26.0 bps dropping a single wallet

Why it's dead

The "follow profitable wallets" cohort looked great, until a leave-one-out showed a single wallet carried the entire result. Remove it and the edge inverts.

The detail

n=205 mirrored events. One wallet was 51.5% of events; dropping it took the cohort to −26.0 bps. The apparent edge was concentration, not a repeatable signal. The drawdown gate also fired at the implemented size.

Kill date: 2026-06-21
Sample: n=205
Method: Pre-registered
Verdict: concentration ≠ edge

What it would have done to your money

You put in$10,000

You run it for50 mirrored trades

You would have

$8,779

−$1,221

lost (12%)

You started with$10,000

This strategy left you$8,779

Instead of not copying at all$10,000

Locked to this strategy's real measured result of -0.26% per mirrored trade, compounded. You choose the amount and the time. We don't choose the return, the strategy already did.

Pre-registered before the data. Judged on a criterion locked in advance. Published whatever the result.

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