The graveyard

Every strategy we've killed.

Each one was judged on a bar we wrote down before we looked, and published with the real numbers. Tap any row for the full autopsy — and a calculator that compounds exactly what it would have done to your money.

Why these numbers can't be faked →
27
published
27
killed
0
survived to a buyable bot

The 27 we have published, backed by 2,248 automated tests. The strategies that survive stay private, that is the edge.

bpsbasis points, a hundredth of a percent. 100 bps = 1%.
The full record
Copy-trading2026-06-21

Copying the “smart-money” wallets only looked profitable because one lucky wallet carried the whole group, drop that single wallet and the strategy loses money.

+74.8 → −26.0 bps
Mean-reversion2026-06-12

We bet prices would bounce off the day’s high and low; they didn’t. The setup is rare, the move was tiny, and it went the opposite way to the bet.

−1.72 bps vs +7.92
Directional2026-06-12

Our automated HYPE bot lost almost three times as much as you’d have lost by simply buying HYPE and holding it over the same week.

−31.9% vs −11.5%
Mean-reversion2026-06-09

We assumed a price gap would close within half an hour; across 5,800 cases it usually didn’t, the gap tends to stick around, not snap back.

26.6% vs 73.4%
Copy-trading2026-05-17

An upgraded copy-trading bot made only two trades in the test window, far too few to prove anything, so we can’t call it a win.

0 of 5 gates
Copy-trading2026-05-09

Copying the single best-performing trader made money on paper, but 92% of it came from one trade; over three months he’d have lost to just holding.

92%
Copy-trading2026-05-09

We built a filter to improve the copy-trading bot, but the bot was shut down before the filter ever saw enough trades to be judged.

abandoned
Funding2026-05-09

The “free” price gap between exchanges was never once wide enough to cover trading costs, not in a single hour out of 4,216.

0 of 4,216
Correlation2026-05-07

A Bitcoin-linked stock doesn’t predict Bitcoin; it just moves alongside it after the fact, so there’s nothing to trade ahead of.

No head start
Methodology2026-05-01

We wanted an AI to read price charts like a human, but the only trader it could have learned from traded coins we don’t touch, so we stopped before spending on it.

Stopped early
Funding2026-04-28

Yesterday’s funding rate tells you nothing useful about tomorrow’s price direction, and even if it did, the edge is too small to cover costs.

No link
Volatility2026-04-28

The volatility around the 8-hour funding reset is real, but it’s spread evenly through the cycle, there’s no special moment to time a trade to.

Evenly spread
Volatility2026-04-28

Trading the speed-up in volatility, rather than its level, added nothing, once you account for the level, the acceleration actually hurts.

Adds nothing
Volatility2026-04-28

Bitcoin and Solana volatility move together at the exact same moment, so there’s no head-start to trade on.

Same instant
Gate2026-04-27

The bot’s own “good day” filter actually picked worse days than the ones it skipped, the filter points the wrong way.

Backwards
Detector2026-03-26

Betting that forced sell-offs keep falling worked in old data but fell apart on fresh data, the effect shrank tenfold and flipped direction.

+1.12 bps
Funding2026-03-26

The trade needed HYPE funding data from Binance and Bybit, but HYPE doesn’t trade there, so there was literally nothing to measure.

0 of 160
Detector2026-03-26

Liquidation cascades bounce back rather than keep running, so riding them as they speed up loses money.

−1.14 bps
Detector2026-03-26

Our cascade detector fired perfectly, but prices bounce back instead of continuing, so it pointed us to bet in exactly the wrong direction.

−0.56 bps
Microstructure2026-03-18

HYPE’s buy/sell gap is too thin to earn the rebate for posting both orders, the spread disappears before both can fill.

0.49 bps
Funding2026-03-18

When several exchanges agreed on funding direction, that agreement still didn’t predict anything you could trade.

No edge
Mean-reversion2026-03-13

Betting against “overstretched” moves looked great on a chart but lost money on every single coin we tested it on.

−11.2 bps
Pattern2026-03-12

This pattern made a tiny profit, but over only eight trades, far too few to tell skill from luck.

+2.11 bps
Pattern2026-03-12

There’s no reliable reversal at the Asian market open; the result was indistinguishable from random noise.

−1.79 bps
Pattern2026-03-12

We tested about ninety chart patterns at once; after correcting for the fact that a few always look good by chance, not one held up.

0 of ~90
Microstructure2026-03-12

A score meant to flag a fragile order book worked on old data but couldn’t tell fragile from stable when shown fresh data.

Fails on new data
Microstructure2026-03-12

We checked other exchanges for an edge Hyperliquid didn’t already have; none offered one, so we stayed put.

0 venues