CorrelationKilled

"$NAKA predicts Bitcoin" (the treasury-stock bellwether myth)

No head start

the stock moves with Bitcoin, not before it, nothing to trade ahead of

In plain English

A Bitcoin-linked stock doesn’t predict Bitcoin; it just moves alongside it after the fact, so there’s nothing to trade ahead of.

What it needed

a clear, reliable head-start before Bitcoin moves

→

What it got

essentially none, no usable head-start

Why it's dead

A high-beta BTC-treasury equity moving with BTC is a coincidence indicator, not a predictor. BTC trades 24/7, by the US open, the move is already priced.

The detail

Post-merger window, n=180 trading days. Daily lead-lag t=+0.12; once you control for BTC's own autocorrelation the β₁ t-stat is +0.57. Capacity-filtered it goes to t=−0.07. Same null across MSTR/MARA/RIOT, it's the whole class, not NAKA.

Kill date: 2026-05-07
Sample: n=180 days
Method: Pre-registered
Verdict: coincidence, not signal

What it would have done to your money

You put in$10,000

You run it for200 trades

You would have

$8,869

−$1,131

lost (11%)

You started with$10,000

This strategy left you$8,869

Instead of not trading$10,000

This strategy had no real edge, so there is no return to compound. The only honest number is the cost: every trade just pays the 0.06% round-trip fee, compounded here. You choose the amount and the time; the bleed is what trading noise costs.

Pre-registered before the data. Judged on a criterion locked in advance. Published whatever the result.

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