Buy HYPE after an “under-trend-gap” signal
bps = basis points = a hundredth of a percent (100 bps = 1%).
This pattern made a tiny profit, but over only eight trades, far too few to tell skill from luck.
The direction is slightly positive but n=8 with p=0.923 is not a result, it's randomness with a positive label. A signal that fires 8 times in a 90-day window cannot accumulate enough evidence before conditions change.
n=8 trades. Mean net: +2.11 bps. p=0.923, not remotely significant. The signal fires too rarely to evaluate within a meaningful window. Even if the direction held, the combination of ultra-low frequency and zero statistical power makes this untestable in any reasonable timeframe.
- Kill date
- 2026-03-12
- Sample
- n=8
- Method
- Pre-registered
- Verdict
- insufficient sample (n=8)
Pre-registered before the data. Judged on a criterion locked in advance. Published whatever the result.
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