VolatilityKilled

Does Bitcoin volatility lead Solana volatility?

Same instant

Bitcoin and Solana volatility move at the same instant, no head start to trade

In plain English

Bitcoin and Solana volatility move together at the exact same moment, so there’s no head-start to trade on.

What it needed

one coin’s volatility leads another’s, even slightly

→

What it got

they move together at the same instant, no lead to trade

Why it's dead

BTC and SOL volatility move together, but simultaneously, not with a lead. The cross-correlation peaks at lag zero, and the predictive (k>0) correlation is below the ship gate. There's no lag to trade.

The detail

BTC-SOL vol_1h r=0.94 contemporaneous; cross-correlation peaks at lag 0; Granger BTC→SOL r=−0.15 (mean reversion). 1-min returns BTC/SOL→HYPE max ρ(k>0)=0.031 vs a 0.05 ship-gate. Market-wide structural co-movement, not a timing edge.

Kill date: 2026-04-28
Sample: BTC ↔ SOL hourly
Method: Pre-registered
Verdict: simultaneous, no lead

What it would have done to your money

You put in$10,000

You run it for200 trades

You would have

$8,869

−$1,131

lost (11%)

You started with$10,000

This strategy left you$8,869

Instead of not trading$10,000

This strategy had no real edge, so there is no return to compound. The only honest number is the cost: every trade just pays the 0.06% round-trip fee, compounded here. You choose the amount and the time; the bleed is what trading noise costs.

Pre-registered before the data. Judged on a criterion locked in advance. Published whatever the result.

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