FundingKilled

Trade when the exchanges all agree on funding direction

No edge

across 115 cases, exchanges agreeing on funding direction predicted nothing

In plain English

When several exchanges agreed on funding direction, that agreement still didn’t predict anything you could trade.

What was claimed

When every exchange agrees on funding direction, the price follows the consensus.

The bar it had to clear

agreement that reliably predicts the next move

What the data said

no predictive power across 115 cases

Why it's dead

After the direct cross-venue arb (trading the same coin's funding gap between exchanges) died, the fallback was a "consensus" signal: when several venues' funding rates all point the same way, trade with the agreement. It had no strength either, the t-stat never cleared 1 (statistical noise; a result needs roughly 2 to start counting as evidence).

The detail

Pivot from direct arb to a multi-venue consensus signal. Tested at n=115: t<1, no detectable edge. Combined with the structural arb kill, this closed the cross-venue funding-direction thesis entirely.

Kill date: 2026-03-18
Sample: n=115
Method: Documented kill
Verdict: no signal (t<1)

What it would have done to your money

You put in$10,000

You run it for200 trades

You would have

$8,869

−$1,131

lost (11%)

You started with$10,000

This strategy left you$8,869

Instead of not trading$10,000

This strategy had no real edge, so there is no return to compound. The only honest number is the cost: every trade just pays the 0.06% round-trip fee, compounded here. You choose the amount and the time; the bleed is what trading noise costs.