FundingKilled

Does yesterday’s funding predict tomorrow’s Bitcoin move?

No link

yesterday’s funding tells you nothing about tomorrow’s move, and any edge is below costs

In plain English

Yesterday’s funding rate tells you nothing useful about tomorrow’s price direction, and even if it did, the edge is too small to cover costs.

What it needed

a real day-to-day link, and an edge above the ~6 bps cost

→

What it got

no real link, and any edge (~4.8 bps) is below costs

Why it's dead

Funding rates on BTC have no usable lag-1 autocorrelation. The spread also fails to clear the cost floor even if the direction were right.

The detail

BTC autocorrelation: r=−0.0599, fails the r≥0.05 threshold, and the sign is wrong. SOL r≈0, p≈0.99. Estimated edge at the strongest in-sample cell ~4.8 bps vs 6.0 bps round-trip cost, sub-cost at full conviction.

Kill date: 2026-04-28
Sample: BTC + SOL funding history
Method: Pre-registered
Verdict: no autocorrelation + sub-cost

What it would have done to your money

You put in$10,000

You run it for200 trades

You would have

$8,869

−$1,131

lost (11%)

You started with$10,000

This strategy left you$8,869

Instead of not trading$10,000

This strategy had no real edge, so there is no return to compound. The only honest number is the cost: every trade just pays the 0.06% round-trip fee, compounded here. You choose the amount and the time; the bleed is what trading noise costs.

Pre-registered before the data. Judged on a criterion locked in advance. Published whatever the result.

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