FundingKilled

Cross-venue funding arbitrage on BTC / ETH / SOL / HYPE

0 of 4,216

hours that were profitable after costs

In plain English

The “free” price gap between exchanges was never once wide enough to cover trading costs, not in a single hour out of 4,216.

What it needed

spread > ~11.5 bps round-trip (HL + Pacifica)

→

What it got

max ever ~1 bp/hour; 0 of 4,216 hours

Why it's dead

The "free" funding spread between exchanges on majors never gets wide enough to clear round-trip costs, and collapses before you can hold it. A permanent structural kill.

The detail

Across a 63-day HL–Pacifica screen, |spread| never exceeded ~1 bp/hour, max single-hour observation HYPE 0.98 bps/h. Breaking even on an 11.5 bps round-trip needs the spread to run >11.7× its historical max; spreads also mean-revert with a 2–3h half-life, collapsing before any hold pays. 0 of 4,216 hourly windows were net-positive at 1/2/4/8h holds. No >156 bps cross-venue dislocation appears on BTC/ETH/SOL in 2023–2026 public data.

Kill date: 2026-05-09
Sample: n≈1,500 hrs/symbol
Method: Pre-registered
Verdict: permanent structural kill

Pre-registered before the data. Judged on a criterion locked in advance. Published whatever the result.

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